mardi 18 septembre 2012

Qwikster ? or Bubble ?


Economic bubble

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values".[1][2][3] It could also be described as a trade in products or assets with inflated values.
While some economists deny that bubbles occur,[4][page needed] the cause of bubbles remains a challenge to those who are convinced that asset prices often deviate strongly from intrinsic values.
While many explanations have been suggested, it has been recently shown that bubbles appear even withoutuncertainty,[5] speculation,[6] or bounded rationality.[7] It has also been suggested that bubbles might ultimately be caused by processes of price coordination[8] or emerging social norms.[7]
Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, when a sudden drop in prices appears. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst. Both the boom and the burst phases of the bubble are examples of a positive feedback mechanism, in contrast to the negative feedback mechanism that determines the equilibrium price under normal market circumstances. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone.




NETFLIX INC COM USD0.001 (NFLX)

57,02 USD 
-5,78% | -3,50 
 17/09/2012 22:00




Miriam Gottfried,
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Netflix (NFLX) n'est plus aussi épargné qu'auparavant par la concurrence.
L'action de la société américaine de location de films en ligne et de DVD par voie postale a dévissé de 6,4% mardi lorsque Amazon (AMZN) a annoncé un accord avec Epix pour la diffusion en streaming de son contenu, qui compte des blockbusters comme "Les Avengers" et "Hunger Games", à destination des abonnés premiums d'Amazon.
L'accord exclusif liant Netflix à Epix a pris fin le 1er septembre.
Netflix avait déjà déclaré dans une lettre aux investisseurs datant du 24 juillet qu'il ne continuerait pas à payer pour conserver l'exclusivité avec Epix, jugeant que le contenu était devenu trop largement accessible via les chaînes de télévision payantes et les offres "TV Everywhere" pour mériter une prime. Les services "TV Everywhere" permettent aux abonnés de certains opérateurs du câble d'accéder aux chaînes que ces derniers proposent à la télévision à partir de n'importe quelle plateforme numérique. L'accord de Netflix sur la diffusion du contenu d'Epix sur une base non exclusive court jusqu'à la mi-2013.
Le contrat d'Epix avec Amazon a cependant démontré qu'un concurrent sérieux s'est montré prêt à enchérir - en proposant probablement entre 100 et 180 millions de dollars (soit entre 80 et 144 millions d'euros) par an, selon Janney Capital Markets - pour accéder à un contenu premium. Et tant qu'il y a de la concurrence pour du contenu, Netflix va devoir mettre davantage d'argent sur la table, ce qui va saper sa capacité à générer des bénéfices.
Amazon, de son côté, n'a pas besoin de rentabiliser immédiatement le streaming. Avec ce contenu, le distributeur étoffe simplement son offre pour rendre plus attractif son abonnement premium de 79 dollars par an (63 euros). Les souscripteurs de ce type d'abonnement bénéficient également d'une livraison gratuite sous deux jours sur de nombreux produits, ce qui laisse à penser que les dépenses supplémentaires de cette clientèle compensent en partie les coûts liés au contenu.
D'autres concurrents bien capitalisés comme Google (GOOG) et Apple (AAPL) pourraient également être tentés prochainement de renforcer leur offre de contenu.
Netflix soutient qu'Epix ne représente que 5% de ses heures de diffusion, ajoutant qu'il concentre ses ressources sur le contenu que les spectateurs ont le plus envie de voir. Mais l'offre premium d'Amazon coûte moins cher par mois que son service et propose une livraison gratuite de DVD par voie postale sous deux jours. Sur le plan du contenu, Coinstar, avec sa chaîne de location de DVD Redbox, propose davantage de nouveaux titres à un prix plus abordable et sans engagement. Pour Netflix, la concurrence s'annonce féroce.
-Miriam Gottfried, The Wall Street Journal
(Version française Céline Fabre)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 05, 2012 08:46 ET (12:46 GMT)








Last updated: September 17, 2012 11:40 pm
Investors start to tune out from Netflix
By Arash Massoudi in New York



Netflix came under fresh pressure Monday as analysts raised concerns over the television and film streaming group’s rising costs.
Shares in the company, which also delivers DVDs to households, dropped 5.8 per cent to $57.02.
    


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Analysts at Macquarie questioned whether Netflix could continue to rely on expanding its subscription base to subsidise the costs associated with adding content to its site as the company seeks to expand internationally.
Tim Nollen, at Macquarie, said: “We worry its mostly older television content and thin streaming film library won’t be attractive enough for consumers that have

not yet cut their cords, and are being retained by incumbent television networks with a wealth of current content and growing live/on-demand viewing.”
Elsewhere, a report from a media trade publication said Netflix was engaged in a battle to retain content from A+E Networks, which owns A&E and the History Channel. If a deal is not reached by Friday, the report in Variety said,

A+E Networks’ content would be removed from Netflix’s content.
Netflix shares have fallen 62.7 per cent over the past year. Monday marked the anniversary of the company’s decision, which was eventually scrapped, to split its home delivery business, then planned to be renamed Qwikster, and its internet streaming business.
“Not too long ago Netflix was the leading source for rentals of physical discs, and had a 35 per cent share of the market before the Qwikster announcement,” said a release from NPD Group, a market research company. “Its current market share is 27 per cent, and Netflix has ceded the lead in the physical disc-rental market to Redbox.”
Overall, US equities slipped from multiyear highs as investors weighed the likelihood that the recent run-up in stocks would last after the Federal Reserve’s latest market intervention.
The benchmark S&P 500, which rose 1.9 per cent last week to its highest point since late 2007, was 0.3 per cent lower at 1,461.19.
Cyclical materials stocks, among last week’s best performing sectors, finished 1.5 per cent lower as investors appeared to be moving out of riskier equities yesterday. Cliffs Natural Resources dropped 7 per cent to $42.36 as some investors ditched shares in the coal mining company after its impressive run last week.
The index is looking to maintain last week’s gains, made when the Federal Reserve launched another round of “quantitative easing” to try to stimulate the sluggish US economy.
The decision followed actions a week earlier by the European Central Bank, which have helped markets in both the US and Europe move higher.
Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ, said: “To the consternation of many bears, the S&P 500 continues to advance as central bankers in Europe and the US aggressively add liquidity.” He attributed part of the gains for stocks to the decline in the value of the dollar in recent weeks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 3,178.67 as shares in Amazondropped 1.3 per cent to $258.00.
Shares in Apple , the consumer electronics company that released its latest iPhone last week, rose 1.2 per cent to $699.80, and in after-market hours moved above $700 a share. The iPhone appears to be on pace to beat sales records as Apple said more than 2m people had pre-ordered the smart phone, which is double the amount from its most recent release.
Facebook declined 2.2 per cent to $21.52 after the social networking company enjoyed its biggest gains as a public company last week.
Chipotle Mexican Grill climbed 3.1 per cent to $346.82 after the fast food restaurant chain received a boost from a research firm that said same store sales for the third quarter appeared to be growing ahead of expectations.
Financial sector stocks, also among last week’s best performing sectors, were 1.1 per cent lower. Bank of America shares declined 2.6 per cent to $9.30. JPMorgan Chaseshares fell 0.9 per cent to $41.21.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3 per cent to 13,553.10. Shares inBoeing , the aircraft manufacturer, lost 1.9 per cent to $69.92.
The day’s best performing sector group on the S&P 500 was the telecommunications index, which rose 0.5 per cent. AT&T shares gained 0.9 per cent to $37.58, whileSprint Nextel climbed 0.2 per cent to $5.27.



By STU WOO
Only a few months ago Netflix Inc. NFLX -5.78% Chief Executive Reed Hastings was on top of the corporate world. On Monday, he was forced to retreat from a strategy that backfired.
Netflix announced that it was abandoning its move to split into two business, following consumer outcry. George Stahl discusses how the stock has been battered since the summer's announcement.
The Internet movie-rental company said it was abandoning a plan to split its DVD-by-mail service into a separate business named Qwikster, originally hatched so it could focus on its online video-streaming service. Customers had howled about that plan, which promised to heap inconvenience on top of a previously announced 60% price increase. Between the two moves, subscribers were livid, and a customer exodus was driving down Netflix shares.
When the plan was announced three weeks ago, Mr. Hastings, a co-founder of the company, indicated that he was willing to take short-term heat to usher Netflix into its new digital identity. On Monday, he sang a new tune.
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"There is a difference between moving quickly—which Netflix has done very well for years—and moving too fast, which is what we did in this case," Mr. Hastings said in a statement. The Los Gatos, Calif., company didn't make Mr. Hastings available for an interview.
While the company is sticking by the July price increase, Mr. Hastings wrote on the company website that "it is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs."
1010netflix2


Reuters


Netflix CEO Reed Hastings speaks during the launch of streaming internet subscription services in Canada, at a news conference in Toronto Sept. 22, 2010.
The split-up plan would have meant Qwikster would handle billing for the DVDs-by-mail service while Netflix would bill for the online viewing. Their two websites wouldn't have been linked, meaning customers would have to check both sites to see whether a movie is available on DVD or for online viewing. Viewing recommendations for one wouldn't factor in movies from the other operation.
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Investors have been just as incensed as subscribers. Mr. Hastings said last month he had been getting heat from investors and joked about it in a message posted on Facebook on Sept. 20, two days after he announced the Qwikster plan. "In Wyoming with 10 investors at a ranch/retreat," he wrote. "I think I might need a food taster. I can hardly blame them."
The company's stock price has fallen more than 60% since it announced price increases July 12. For much of Monday, Netflix shares were sharply higher but they finished down 4.8%, at $111.62, off $5.59, on the Nasdaq Stock Market, even as the overall market rallied.
One analyst, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, downgraded Netflix Monday, believing that the company's decision made its online-video business less of an acquisition target.
Netflix joins a list of companies with embarrassing flip-flops. In 1985, Coca-Cola Co.KO +0.60% brought back its trademark soda after fans denounced "New Coke." In early 2009, PepsiCo Inc. PEP -0.10% scrapped a new carton for Tropicana orange juice, just six weeks after rolling it out to great fanfare, after consumers gave it a big thumbs down. Traveler outrage led Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL -0.43% in 1999 to drop a $2 fee on tickets not purchased on its website.
Until recently, the 51-year-old Mr. Hastings had sported a reputation as a technology and media visionary.
Netflix will no longer go forward with its dual-business split, bowing to consumer dismay. But the price increases are still a go. So far, investors are cheering the news, Peter Kafka and Rex Crum report on digits.
"He's usually a much better chess player than this," said Adam Hanft, who heads the consumer marketing and branding firm Hanft Projects. The idea of separating the business was "a total blunder, and he misread consumer intentions and interest completely."
But Katherine Milkman, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, lauded Mr. Hastings for backtracking. Too often "people want to save face and don't think, what's best for my company at this point?" she said.
Netflix, founded in 1997, can't afford to anger subscribers and risk having more of them jump ship to competitors such asAmazon.com Inc. AMZN -1.25% andCoinstar Inc.'s CSTR -2.11% Redbox DVD-rental kiosks. Losing customers hurts not only revenue but also Netflix's ability to negotiate streaming contracts with content providers.
The new pricing vexed many Netflix customers. In July, the company raised the price of a popular DVD-plus-streaming plan to $15.98 a month from $9.99. An online-only subscription remained at $8, but it offers only a fraction of the titles available through Netflix's DVD catalog, which includes more than 100,000 movies and TV episodes.
Netflix had already cut its third-quarter subscriber forecast by 4% to 24 million. Then, more customers left after Mr. Hastings announced the Qwikster plan.
Mr. Hastings said in a blog post at the time that separating Qwikster would allow Netflix to better focus on providing movies and TV shows online, where consumers are increasingly watching videos. But he also said that "it is possible we are moving too fast—it is hard to say."



One Netflix customer upset about the Qwikster plan was Jeff Portnoff, an information-technology consultant in Fern Park, Fla. He called the reversal "a real step in the right direction," but said he was still thinking about dropping the online-video service because of the cost.
—Shara Tibken contributed to this article.


Write to Stu Woo at Stu.Woo@wsj.com

 























































Qwikster From Netflix: The Worst Product Launch Since New Coke? [OPINION]
Chris Taylorby 




As any marketer will tell you, there are some truly awful times to launch a new product — like August, when few potential customers are paying attention, or January, when they’re all shopped out from the holidays.
And then there’s launching your new product in the tenth paragraph of an apology for some previous poor communication, as Netflix CEO Reed Hastings did late Sunday with Qwikster, the new name for Netflix’s DVD-by-mail service.
The reaction was immediate, and almost uniformly negative. Nearly 10,000 commenters had piled onHastings’s blog entry by midday Monday. “With actions like this, it is only a matter of time before you become the next MySpace,” said one. “Your arrogance is so thick it’s palpable,” wrote a “former Netflix evangelist.” A former Coca-Cola employee, Mary Louise McCoy, compared the launch of Qwikster to the disastrous 1985 launch of New Coke she experienced from the inside. “Hubris has brought down many a company,” she added. “You are going to lose thousands more members, including myself.” Several of Mashable‘s commenters said they had to double check that it wasn’t April Fools’ Day.



t’s hard not to agree with all of this. I first interviewed Reed Hastings 10 years ago and have chatted and dined with him several times since; a former Artificial Intelligence researcher, he is one of the smartest and most amiable minds I’ve ever met. He predicted his company’s transition to Internet streaming 10 years ago, hence the name Netflix. His incredible foresight and drive helped bring Blockbuster — once an impossibly large rival — to its knees.
But the Hastings in the apology video is not the Hastings I knew. He seems spooked by Wall Street’s reactionto Netflix’s loss of subscribers. He fluffs one of his lines, which is profoundly odd in a prerecorded video from a video company executive. Then, of course, he compounds the poor communication he’s supposed to be sorry about with a precipitous rebranding. The whole thing leaves an impression of haste, of someone being reactive rather than proactive.
We’ve known for some time that Netflix intends to move away from the DVD subscription model toward streaming, which is fundamentally more lucrative. But Hastings seems determined to lose or confuse as many customers along the way.
How bad is the whole Qwikster idea? Let us count the ways:
1. The name. One sign of poor branding is how many ways there are to misspell what you’re looking for. Expect a surge of Google searches for Quickster, Quikster and Qwickster — none of which are currently redirected to the correct website. Nor does the name seem to have anything to do with the product. “Qwik” suggests a discount supermarket or photocopy shop, while the generic “-ster” ending was all the rage for startups … in 2000. Now it’s primarily associated with companies that get sold off in a fire sale and become shadows of their former selves: see Napster, Friendster and Dogster. You’d be better off calling the new company “Qwik ‘n’ Save”.



2. Customer confusion. Will my DVD queue port over to Qwikster intact? Will the user interface look the same? Currently, Netflix tells you if the movie you’re searching for is available on disc or on streaming, and you can click on either button — will that go away? Nobody knows, and that’s likely to cause customers to throw up their hands and leave. If Netflix had been smart about this launch, it would have prepared an FAQ at launch — not to mention secured the appropriate Twitter handle so it could respond to customers directly.
3. Fixes a problem no one needed fixing. Have you ever longed for a rebranding of Netflix’s DVD envelopes? Or thought to yourself, “I’d pay for both disc and streaming services if only they had separate names and separate websites?” Me neither, and that’s what makes the move such a head-scratcher. We’re told that Qwikster will also offer video games for rental. That’s great: Competitor Redbox rolled out the same service this summer. But Redbox didn’t feel the need to rebrand itself in the process. Quite the opposite — we’d rather try out a new kind of rental if it’s from a known entity.



4. Broken trust. Tin-eared product roll-outs are one thing. But a tin-eared product roll-out at the end of an email apologizing for a previous tin-eared product roll-out? It’s hard not to feel like you’re being taken for a ride at that point. Think of that moment in an argument between lovers or family members when an apology suddenly (and often unintentionally) transmutes into an offense even more outrageous than the one being apologized for.
Until today, Netflix’s only offense was that it had raised prices by 60% on a bunch of its customers. Now it leaves all its customers — the 22 million who stream, and the 15 million who rent DVDs — confused and uncertain about the future of the company.
But it’s not too late to walk things back. New Coke may have been an unmitigated disaster, but Coca-Cola eventually ditched it and is still standing strong a quarter-century later. Hastings might win a lot of that lost trust back if he moves fast, apologizes again, and comes up with less confusing branding for the DVD-by-mail service. Might we suggest Netflix Classic?










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